Budget uncertainty is prompting many buyers to take a “wait and see” approach, resulting in the first annual decline in sales agreed in two years. Meanwhile, serious movers are pressing ahead to complete before the end of the year, and realistic pricing is proving more important than ever.

At a glance

Buyer demand is currently around 8% lower than this time last year, and sales agreed are down by 3% overall. The slowdown is most noticeable in higher-value markets, particularly across southern England.

Despite this, house price inflation remains steady at 1.3%, with prices broadly flat in the South, but rising by just over 2% in other regions.

There are now 7% more homes for sale than a year ago, giving serious buyers more choice than they’ve seen in recent years. However, the average time to sell has increased to 37 days, which is about 10% longer than last autumn.

Across the UK, around 350,000 homes worth over £100 billion are currently progressing through the sales pipeline, the largest volume of transactions seen in more than four years.

Average UK house prices

As of September 2025, the average UK house price is £270,000, marking an annual increase of £3,560, or 1.3%.

Detached homes currently sell for around £452,000, up by £5,890 (an annual gain of 1.3%). Semi-detached homes average £277,600, a rise of £6,650, or 2.5% over the past year. Terraced homes are achieving around £240,100, up by £3,940, or 1.7%, while flats and maisonettes are selling for roughly £192,400, a fall of £2,280, equating to a 1.2% decline.

Buyer demand dips as Budget speculation looms

Uncertainty over what the November Budget may bring has led many potential buyers, particularly those just starting their search to pause for now. This has resulted in the first annual decline in agreed sales since October 2023.

Compared to the same period last year, buyer demand has fallen by 8%, while sales agreed are down 3%. The usual pre-Christmas slowdown appears to have arrived six to eight weeks early, partly due to last year’s unusually active market, when many buyers were rushing to complete before the end of stamp duty reliefs in April 2025.

Overall, there are 7% more homes available than last year, suggesting that while some buyers are holding back, motivated movers are taking advantage of the increased choice and securing deals before the market picks up again.

Property tax speculation weighs on higher-value homes

Growing speculation around property tax reform is affecting demand for homes at the top end of the market. The slowdown in listings and agreed sales is most pronounced among properties priced over £500,000, particularly across southern England where higher-value homes are concentrated.

Talk of potential changes, including higher council tax bands, replacing stamp duty with an annual property tax, and introducing capital gains tax on sales above £1.5 million, has caused many wealthier buyers to pause until the Chancellor’s November Budget provides clarity.

For now, many in this segment are adopting a cautious approach, waiting to see how policy unfolds before committing to a purchase.

House price inflation steady at 1.3%

UK house price growth has slowed through 2025, with average annual inflation now at 1.3%, roughly the same as this time last year.

Record sales pipeline worth £100 billion

Even with the slight slowdown, the market remains active. Nearly 350,000 homes worth more than £100 billion are currently progressing through the sales pipeline.

It typically takes five to six months from agreeing a sale to completion, so many of these transactions will finalise early in 2026. This represents the largest pipeline since May 2021, at the height of the post-pandemic property boom.

Steady mortgage rates have given sellers the confidence to list their homes, while first-time buyers continue to play a vital role in maintaining market momentum.

What’s next for the UK housing market?

After two years of strong growth, the market is now entering a more balanced phase. Sales volumes remain close to the ten-year average of 1.2 million transactions per year, but momentum is likely to plateau in the coming months as Budget uncertainty and economic caution take hold. House price inflation is expected to end the year between 1% and 1.5%.

There is increasing speculation that the upcoming Budget could include significant stamp duty reforms. While abolishing the tax would undoubtedly boost activity and help stimulate broader economic growth, buyers are understandably cautious about what might replace it.

For now, realistic pricing, careful planning, and market awareness remain key for anyone looking to move before the end of the year.

If you are looking to sell your property, call Seths on 0116 266 9977 to speak with our dedicated sales team. 

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