With the uncertainty of the Autumn Budget now behind us, buyers and sellers can finally return to making clear decisions about their next move. The scrapping of the proposed annual property tax on homes valued over five hundred thousand pounds removes a major concern for around two hundred and ten thousand properties currently for sale, a decision that is expected to help revive activity in higher-value markets. However, the absence of any stamp duty reform means homebuyers will continue to face rising purchase costs as property prices gradually push more buyers into higher tax bands.

Key takeaways

• House prices across southern England have dipped for the first time in eighteen months
• Prices elsewhere in the UK are still rising by up to three per cent, supported by stable demand and better affordability
• The Budget scrapped the proposed annual property tax on homes over five hundred thousand pounds, a boost for higher-value markets
• With no major property tax changes, the outlook for early 2026 is clearer and more stable
• Stamp duty remains unchanged, continuing to nudge more buyers into higher bands
• The average time to secure a sale has increased as stock levels rise

Average UK house prices

As of October 2025, the average UK house price stands at two hundred and seventy thousand, two hundred pounds, an annual increase of one point three per cent, or roughly three thousand, three hundred and forty pounds.

Flats and maisonettes have dipped slightly in value over the past year, falling by just over two thousand pounds. Terraced homes, semi-detached homes and detached homes have all recorded modest annual growth. Terraced homes are up by more than four thousand pounds, semis by just under six thousand, and detached properties by more than five thousand.

House prices falling across southern England

For the first time in a year and a half, house prices in southern England have begun to edge down. Buyer caution driven by months of Budget speculation has created more negotiating room and increased choice for purchasers, turning southern regions into clear buyers’ markets.

More than one third of homes for sale in the South are priced above five hundred thousand pounds, meaning rumours of a potential annual property tax had a greater cooling effect here than elsewhere. With speculation now removed, confidence should steadily return, but for the moment, stock levels in southern regions are eight to fifteen per cent higher than a year ago, giving buyers the upper hand.

Beyond the South, market momentum is far more resilient. Prices are rising by up to three per cent in the Northwest, and by between two and three per cent across northern England, Scotland and Wales. More accessible price points and stable mortgage rates have helped maintain growth in these regions.

Overall, average UK prices are one point three per cent higher than this time last year, broadly similar to last month’s reading and only slightly below the one point seven per cent growth recorded twelve months ago.

Buyer demand twelve per cent lower, sales agreed down four per cent

This year’s seasonal slowdown arrived earlier than usual. Buyer demand is now twelve per cent lower than in autumn 2024, but the market remains surprisingly resilient. Sales agreed are only four per cent down year-on-year, as committed movers continue progressing their purchases before the end of the year.

Eastern England has seen the sharpest slowdown, with sales activity dropping by around nine per cent. Meanwhile, Scotland, the East Midlands and Yorkshire & the Humber have held steady, with sales agreed remaining broadly in line with last year.

A post-Budget boost expected for southern England in 2026

The standout announcement in the Budget was the introduction of a new tax on homes worth more than two million pounds, affecting only the highest-value half per cent of properties. For the vast majority of households, however, the most significant change is what didn’t happen, the government decided against introducing the widely rumoured annual property tax on homes valued above five hundred thousand pounds.

This clarity removes months of uncertainty for more than two hundred and ten thousand properties currently listed above this price point. These listings account for around a quarter of all homes for sale across the UK and half of all listings in London. As confidence returns, we expect the southern housing market to pick up pace as we move into 2026, following nearly four months of slower late-2025 activity.

Stamp duty remains unchanged and continues to weigh on affordability

Stamp duty thresholds have remained frozen since 2014. Since then, average house prices have risen by forty-seven per cent, steadily pulling more buyers into higher tax bands and increasing the effective cost of moving.

While first-time buyer relief means the impact is softened in many regions, more than half of first-time buyers in southern England now pay stamp duty, rising to around eighty per cent in London. In contrast, fewer than ten per cent of first-time buyers in most other regions pay anything at all.

For current homeowners moving up the ladder, the cost burden is even greater, with over ninety per cent of movers in southern England and the Midlands paying stamp duty. Unsurprisingly, stamp duty has become a key factor shaping asking prices, negotiations and buyer behaviour.

A growing share of buyers now pay more than two and a half per cent of their purchase price in stamp duty, up from around one in five buyers in 2019 to more than one in three in 2025. In towns such as Aldershot and Crawley, buyers of average-priced homes are paying between two point five and two point six per cent of the purchase price, equivalent to between nine and eleven thousand pounds. This trend reinforces the argument for comprehensive stamp duty reform in future Budgets.

Market outlook

This year’s Budget turned out to be gentler on the housing market than many feared. With clarity restored, and no major new taxes on mainstream homes, buyers and sellers can begin to make informed decisions again.

Underlying motivation to move remains strong. As confidence returns, we expect activity to build gradually into early 2026, especially among those who temporarily paused their plans during the uncertainty of autumn 2025.

The divergence between southern England and the rest of the UK is likely to continue, with the South relying heavily on sustained income growth to restore affordability. For now, the broader market is stabilising, and with clearer direction ahead, the next year looks set to be more predictable for movers and homeowners alike.